Late winter, early spring… it’s that time of year where the entire technology world begins to wonder about what Apple has planned for the next version of the iPhone, which, come late June will be the device that sets the trend for mobile technology into the next year. Like it or hate it, the iPhone is the standard that all Android, WebOS, BlackBerry and Windows Phones must either match or surpass to be taken seriously.

So what will this phone feature? It’s impossible to tell until Steve Jobs takes the stage to tell us, and even then there will still be many unanswered questions until it gets into the hands of the consumer. Even though the release of the next generation iPhone happens like clock work, I’m still constantly asked questions like “when will the next iPhone be out” or “should I wait to buy it?” — This article serves to help anwser those questions right now.

By the way, if you thought I mistaken when I said Steve Jobs will take the stage, let me clarify:

Prediction #1 — Steve Jobs Will Introduce the iPhone 5

Unless his cancer reaches a point which seriously prohibits him from doing so, I believe that he will do everything in his power to be the one on stage to show off the new iPhone. Rumors of his impending doom are being greatly exaggerated, and unlike what the tabloids have said he’s well enough to have dinner at the White House (which I believe he’s doing as I’m writing this) so pending something that physically prohibits him from doing so, he’s going to introduce this device.

Why? Because the reality distortion field doesn’t function without him.

Do I think it’s a coincidence that the Verizon iPhone hasn’t taken off like crazy and that Steve Jobs was not the one to announce it? While there are many factors, some of which I’ve outlined in the past, that have led to the Verizon iPhone not being as exciting as what some in the tech press thought it would be, the fact that Steve wasn’t there to hock the wares didn’t help. Now don’t get me wrong, Apple’s chief operating officer Tim Cook, who is taking Steve’s place running the daily operations in Cupertino is a very capable person and did a fine job at the Verizon iPhone launch. You also have the very engaging Jonathan Ive, who I’m sure would give a fantastic intoduction, or Bob Mansfield who I’m sure could also take the stage.

But none of them are Steve Jobs. None of them really have the magic, none of them have the power to convince millions of people that the device Apple is selling is the best product on the market, even if it lacks some features that competitors have, or operates within Apple’s closed system. Regardless of your loyalties, at the end of the presentation Steve makes you want to go at least try his new device… if not stand in line for hours on end to please him.

Prediction #2 — Hardware Updates

I’m going to go on record by saying that the iPhone 5 isn’t going to look drastically different than the iPhone 4. While the antenna design my be altered slightly, the dimensions are going to be the same. In my opinion the market isn’t ready for something drastically different, yet. That will probably come with next years version. Aside from the well documented attenuation problems, the design of the iPhone 4 is solid. My best guess is, Apple won’t alter it much except to correct that flaw.

I don’t buy into the 4″ screen rumor that is going around the blogs. I also don’t give any credence to the prediction of an “iPhone Nano” — I just don’t think it’s going to happen this year, if ever.

Inside though, you’re probably going to see updates similar to that of the transition from the iPhone 3G to the iPhone 3GS. What does that mean this go round?

1. Dual-core processor, perhaps in the 1GHz range. Can’t you just see Steve on stage saying “it’s twice as fast!” If they don’ t get this, they’re going to be left behind in the power plant by almost any serious Android phone in 2011 who will all be sporting dual processor/graphics cores. NVIDIA is working on a Tegra 3 chip that has a quad-core ARM processor powerful enough rival an Intel Core 2 Duo, and with far better power efficiencies. This is one area I don’t think Apple cannot afford to let us down in, and I don’t think they will.
2. Improved rear camera, perhaps in the 8MP area, and with support for 1080p video recording. Honestly, as good as the camera on the iPhone 4 already is, rather than simply bumping up the megapixels I’d like to see them give the sensor increased sensitivity, faster focus speed, and better ISO/low light performance… and maybe they will.
3. 1GB of RAM. It’s cheap, and it’s going to be needed as mobile computing becomes more powerful to background more and more applications. I can see Apple sticking with 512MB here just as much as I can see them update, so I’ll give this one a 50/50 shot.
4. NFC, or near field communications. If you don’t know what this is, I’d suggest some research is in order. It’s too much to explain here, but it basically means using your phone for mobile payment and communication with other devices. I’ll be shocked if they don’t have this feature.

Prediction #3 – Networks

1. No LTE. It’s not needed, the chips that are out to support it are not mature, and suck a lot of battery life. Besides that, cellular networks around the world are not deploying it at the level where it’s even going to be utilized except by a few lucky few. This is an area where if you can get LTE now (or soon) and really feel like you need it, you’re going to be better off with Android anyway.
2. Support for fake-4G also known as “HSPA+” — although I really hope that Apple doesn’t ever call it 4G. Enhanced 3G is all it is.

The reason why I think Apple will support HSPA+ in the next version is the same reason why I think the iPhone 5 will be a unified GSM/CDMA device. I think it’s going to be launched at the same time on AT&T and Verizon in the USA, in addition to all the GSM providers around the world. The current iPhone 4 model on AT&T is a GSM-only radio made by a company now owned by Intel. The Verizon iPhone uses a radio that is both CDMA and GSM capable made by Qualcomm. If I could bet on it, I’d put big money on this same exact chip being in the iPhone 5. This chip currently supports HSPA+ but it’s not in the iOS firmware, nor does Verizon utilize this technology on their EVDO data network.

One chip both simplifies Apple’s SKUs and allows them to use the same device around the world.

I also think Apple is going to announce support for other CDMA providers around the world, including Canada and most of all… China. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if that doesn’t happy until after the initial launch.

Prediction #4 – Software

Obviously with the release of a new iPhone comes updates to iOS, in this case bringing us to version 5.0.

This is the area where my predictions are somewhat fuzzy. Because we’re still in the process of evaluating the soon to drop (like, within the next month, possibly with the iPad 2) version of iOS 4.3, that’s all many are focused on.

But I will say that I think Apple finally is going to get serious about the cloud, and wireless. While I don’t think that Apple will be switching to over the air updates from carriers (nor should they), I think they’re going to finally open up wireless sync for iTunes. The time is right, and their track record recently with things like Apple TV streaming, Air Play, etc, is leading them in that direction.

It would be fantastic if Apple would let you sync your device with iTunes from anywhere, but I have mixed emotions about if this will happen. Carriers are not going to want to allow them to do it, especially AT&T, so it’s possible it will be a Wifi only feature, which honestly wouldn’t be a horrible thing. I’m not sure I’d want to be syncing back over 3G, even at HSPA+ speeds and especially not on regular 3G or worse yet, Verizon’s slower broadband network. Syncing back to my home computer, or even better, Apple’s North Carolina datacenters, would be fantastic.

What I hope to see, but don’t think we will, is a better notification system in iOS. Despite Android, WebOS, BlackBerry and even Windows Phone having a superior notification system for new events, I think this is one of those areas where Apple doesn’t see major issues. Those that do, are going to continue jailbreaking and installing things like Lockinfo, Notifier, etc.

It’s my hope that some of the built in applications will finally get some love in iOS 5. I’m looking at you Calculator, but especially you Weather and Stocks… which have hardly changed at all since iOS 1.0. Most of all though, I think Apple is going to have to invest heavily in revamping their Maps application, which hasn’t changed much since the original version. Google Maps on Android is absolutely crushing iOS in this area.

Last, voice commands are going to be improved, hopefully to the point where it reaches the ability to run much of the phone without touch. If Apple could duplicate the text-to-voice functionality of Android, it’s be all over.

Prediction #5 – Most of this will be wrong

In all five of these areas, I’m probably going to be wrong more than I’m right. Predicting what Apple will do is like predicting the weather in Kansas on the day they announce the iPhone 5. It could be sunny, we could get a dual-core, or it could be stormy and we get only minor improvements. Hell, it could snow in June and we get nothing. The world honestly won’t know until later this summer.

I will say this. After the end of February, if you are reaching the point where your iPhone 3GS contract is about to expire, and you’re not considering a switch to Android or Windows Mobile (which you should, there are some great alternatives out there) then don’t buy an iPhone 4 right now. Not on AT&T, Verizon, or any other network. We’re quickly reaching the point of no return where you’re going to be kicking yourself for investing $200/$300 and two years of your life in a contract for a device that is soon to be last generation.

But, perhaps my #6 prediction is that many will not see or heed this warning, and do so anyway.

This little demo from Microsoft has made me evaluate my position on Windows Phone. While the demo itself isn’t perfect (there is a lot of jitter, and the phone display is just a stick figure outline) it looks like it’s at least beta code they’re playing and not just CGI. If this is what Microsoft has in mind for the future, sign me up!

Not everyone was happy with the news that Windows Phone 7 would soon become the platform of choice for Nokia. Among those upset were the thousands of Nokia employees who staged a walkout in protest of their new Redmond-based masters.

According to HS.fi, the employees didn’t actually quit, but took the rest of the day off, en mass.

“Quite a few people used the flexible working time,” said Kalle wedge , Nokia’s senior staff in the shop steward in Tampere.

But they might as well. Nokia is expected to begin slashing jobs for programmers who no longer will be needed to maintain the Symbian platform, or the reduced focus on their MeeGo code.

Only those who used their flex time to go out and find the nearest copy of Silverlight for Dummies may be spared, as Nokia will now refocus towards application programming and development for that platform.

Protip: Nokia employees who walked out today, should being updating their resumes.

Microsoft has posted the bits for the Windows Internet Explorer 9 Release Candidate, and thanks to our pal Tom Warren at WinRumors, we have the web installer downloads for you.

• Windows 7 x86
• Windows 7 x64
• Windows Vista x86
• Windows Vista x64

We’re downloading and installing this now, to let you know what has changed from the last beta and from Internet Explorer 8. Just a note, there are links posted for Windows 7 and Windows Vista, but not XP. Why? Because there will be no Internet Explorer 9 for Windows XP. All good things must end.

Download and consume at your own risk.

Microsoft has finally brought an official Office application (at least one of them) to the iPhone platform.   The OneNote app allows users on an Apple mobile device to modify and create OneNote files from their iOS device and sync them through SkyDrive.  Is this a sign of new applications to come out of Redmond to try and help combat users leaving Bill Gates’ cash cow called Office?  If so, I believe it is a smart move.  Choice and flexibility may help the fight against competitors from juggernauts Sun and Google.  Currently Microsoft is giving the way the app but leaves the door open for a future profit stream by stating the application is “free for a limited time.”

Android users are currently left in the dark forced to use third party apps like MobileNoter to get their OneNote on.

Get ready to start patching systems, according to Tom Warren at Winrumors, Windows 7 Service Pack 1 will be released on Tuesday and is being pushed out for last minute testing to OEMs today. Tom explains:

In a blog posting on Thursday, Microsoft’s Russian Windows Virtualization team confirmed that the final build of Windows 7 SP1 is 7601.17514.win7sp1_rtm.101119-1850. The Russian site also explains that the Service Pack will be available publicly today. Microsoft generally releases Service Packs on a Tuesday so it’s not clear whether the Russian technet post is referring to a public release to select partners or a full web release. WinRumors understand the software giant will ship the release to its OEM partners today but that a web release is expected at a later date.

Along with Windows 7, Microsoft will likely release Service Pack 1 for Windows Server 2008 R2 at the same time, as the code base is the same and testing for that update has been inline with the client version.

In a surprise announcement on the Chromium Blog today, Google announced that they would be phasing out H.264 support from the Google Chrome web browser, in favor of the open sourced WebM standard. The announcement further muddies the waters of HTML5 video support.

To that end, we are changing Chrome’s HTML5 <video> support to make it consistent with the codecs already supported by the open Chromium project. Specifically, we are supporting the WebM (VP8) and Theora video codecs, and will consider adding support for other high-quality open codecs in the future. Though H.264 plays an important role in video, as our goal is to enable open innovation, support for the codec will be removed and our resources directed towards completely open codec technologies.

What is unclear is how Google can on one hand say that their goal is to enable open innovation, and yet still justify bundling the proprietary Adobe Flash plugin with Chrome.

The biggest supporter of H.264 in HTML5 video comes from Apple, which uses it in Safari, specifically on the iPhone, iPad and other iOS platform devices. Because Steve Jobs doesn’t like to run Flash unless he’s had a few drinks first, and even then only with protection, there is no Flash support on any iOS device. If WebM were to take off, Apple would need to act to incorporate support or leave millions of iOS users unable to load most web video sites.

However, the chances of a clear winner emerging from all of this is unlikely.

Prior to this announcement, Chrome had the unique distinction of being the only major browser to support both technologies. Firefox has never supported H.264 and will not in the next version, but Internet Explorer 9 which will be released sometime in 2011, does. Currently the only other mainstream browser that supports WebM is Opera, but Firefox 4 will enable support for that technology after it is released. Safari provides no support for WebM, nor does any current or future version of Internet Explorer.

Factor in Ogg Theora, and you have a codec that is almost universally supported by Firefox, Chrome and Opera… just not Internet Explorer or Safari.

Confused? Yeah, us too.

The reasoning for all of this comes down to licensing, something most end users don’t care about. We’re generally just happy when technology works as advertised. But Google doesn’t want to pay anyone for anything they don’t have to, and supporting WebM means not paying as much money or being bound to a restrictive license agreement.

Chrome used to be the browser that would play any of the three major HTML 5 video formats. Going forward from today, it has voluntarily neutered itself.

A little Microsoft humor for your hump day. Enjoy.

via Winrumors

While he will remain Microsoft’s second biggest shareholder, Steve Ballmer has begun selling off a good chunk of his shares and intends to do more before the end of the year. This week alone he’s shed over 49 million shares of common stock, netting him around $1.3 billion dollars. The remaining 26 million could go soon and net him just another half billion.

It’s the first time since 2003 Ballmer has cashed out his shares. That sell off brought Ballmer around $1.6 billion.

Bill Gates remains the biggest shareholder at Microsoft, owning around 7% of the company. Ballmer still owns around 4% of the giant. Gates himself cashed out around 3 million shares recently, probably to finance the purchase of more mosquitoes.

via CNET

You know you’re probably doing something right when three of your biggest competitors start acting like the world has come to an end. In this case, it’s Microsoft versus the anti-virus world.

While we like to stress the importance of anti-virus products on all platforms, they’re sort of like insurance companies. Their products are usually expensive and bloated, and when you really need them most of the time they’re not that effective. Microsoft’s Security Essentials product is arguably one of the best anti-virus products on the market, and it’s free, and it’s got traditional vendors like Symantec, McAfee and Trend Micro scared. Even more so now that Microsoft has begun distributing the software to users directly through it’s Microsoft Update service.

But Trend, McAfee and Symantec (and others who have yet to chime in) should really talk less and instead focus on their own products. Instead of getting their panties in a bunch prematurely, they should take a step back and look at the facts.

1. The product is delivered through Microsoft’s optional Microsoft Update service, which, while tied into Windows Update requires users to opt-in to receiving.
2. The product is only available to users who don’t already have an anti-virus program reporting in Windows. There are people who aren’t using other products as it is.

But instead of trying to make their own products better, or more attractive, they’re using hyperbole and crying “antitrust” to get people angry. In most cases, it’s only making people angry and them.

Trend Micro:

“Commercializing Windows Update to distribute other software applications raises significant questions about unfair competition,” said Carol Carpenter, the general manager of the consumer and small business group at Trend Micro, on Thursday.

“Windows Update is a de facto extension of Windows, so to begin delivering software tied to updates has us concerned,” she added. “Windows Update is not a choice for users, and we believe it should not be used this way.”

Symantec:

“It’s clear that today’s threat landscape requires more comprehensive protection than what Microsoft Security Essentials offers,” said Symantec in a statement. “From a security perspective, this Microsoft tool offers reduced defenses at a critical point in the battle against cybercrime.”

McAfee:

“Options that provide an elementary level of security, including Microsoft Security Essentials, mostly rely on traditional protection mechanisms,” McAfee said. “McAfee products offer not only more features but most importantly, McAfee products offer real-time protection using cloud-based intelligence to combat even the most sophisticated threats.”

Again, these vendors talk a good game, but a lot of it is just that. Talk. The truth is Security Essentials has been sufficient for most everyone I’ve ever given it to. These other companies would be wise to learn a thing or two from Microsoft instead of trying to just look superior.

I run Security Essentials on anything I have a choice to. You couldn’t force me to install anything from Symantec, McAfee or Trend Micro… nor would I recommend it.

via InfoWorld